Nepal has become one of the locations in Asia in which three large powers will increasingly intersect and collide in the coming years. China, India and the United States, and their respective friends, can be expected to enhance their Nepal portfolios in the near future.
The utility of this role that Nepal may play, depends on a number of factors but is primarily related to the extent the country is able to assert its own independent identity — not as a measure to challenge more powerful countries, but to ensure that those powerful countries that wish to work with us are not undercutting, or let us say sabotaging, each other.
It is more important for Nepal, now more than ever before in its recent history, to cultivate relationships and friendships with as many countries around the world as possible.
This will not only help to accelerate development in the country, but would be a great opportunity for Nepal to contribute some public goods into the international system, too. But what kind of public goods?
There will be a need down the line for countries like Nepal to help maintain peace and stability in what is likely to be a more turbulent and raucous period of world history in the coming decades.
Some theories in international relations predict that China will seek a premier — some would call it a ‘hegemonic’ — role in Asia in the near future. The same theories also look at what might be the role of India in the decades to come, as it will have not only the largest population in the world, but its youngest demographic bloc too.
How is that likely to impact the course of events in Asia? How is that likely to play out in a country like Nepal, which is sandwiched between these two giants? In what direction will the United States wish to see Nepal move? Is that going to conflict with or converge with the preferences coming out of Beijing and New Delhi?
Some of these questions already require serious assessment. Good governance has not been something that comes naturally to Nepal’s rulers. The main concern of the Nepali people appears to be not what is model or structure of governance the country has, but the results (or lack thereof) that emerge as a result. A country’s foreign policy is merely an expression of its core domestic politics.
We are now at a stage where the centre of gravity of global power is shifting back to Asia. The start of the industrial revolution in Britain had a negative impact on Nepal. It heralded the decline of Asia, and the mastery over Asia and its colonial conquest by western prowess. Asian countries had till this time not just been culturally and politically advanced, but were also able to flex their economic muscle from time to time.
The art and culture in Nepal during the Malla period did not just stay in Kathmandu Valley, but crossed the Himalaya to Tibet, China, Korea and Japan. These Asian countries at that time were at the zenith of their power, politically and economically.
We are now at the tail end of that process that began in the 17th and 18th centuries with industrialisation in the Western Hemisphere, and the pendulum is starting to swing back to the East.
What should Nepal’s position and role in this transition be? The country requires serious stewardship and a total commitment to a morally anchored politics. Political theory tells us that morality can never be consistent with power, and the quest for power will always triumph.
Not necessarily. Within the comity of states that comprises the international system, some countries like Nepal are exceptionally lucky. The same attributes that are looked upon as Nepal’s weakness today, could be seen as a strength tomorrow.
Nepal’s ‘soft power’ inheres in her extraordinary cultural and religious wealth that has barely been tapped and put into a cogent foreign policy.
The world is headed into unchartered territory in which the possibility of military conflict is as real as the comforts we have come to take so much for granted. Our governments have not done a good job preparing us for the worst-case scenario in which young men and women could be called upon to put their lives on the line for the country.
This is the moment for Nepal to seize because the country could otherwise very well see a precipitous decline. On the other hand, if the opportunity is grasped, Nepal has a good chance to build herself up over the next ten-year period to play a more significant cross Himalayan bridge-building role in regional politics.
There will certainly be more tensions that boil over in the India-China relationship, and Nepal must have a viable answer as to what its response will be. It cannot possibly pick one neighbour and go in that direction. A unidirectional foreign policy will not be sustainable over the long run, and will not align with the needs of the time.
This moment in the history of Asia, which saw a decline with the advent of industrialisation and colonisation, is now on the upswing and presents an important opportunity for Nepal to grasp.
Nepal should play a constructive and wise role to bring her diplomatic partners, especially India, China and the United States, together for peace and stability in what is certainly developing into one of the central pivots in the Asian region.
Bhaskar Koirala is the Director of the Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Studies.
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