Given the high test positivity rate, it is advisable for people to stay on their guard and continue following the health safety protocols
The overcrowded streets of Kathmandu with their business as usual atmosphere might give the impression that the coronavirus pandemic is over, and life has returned to normalcy.
Also, government data, updated daily, show a steady decline in the number of new infections in the country, especially in the past one week, portending the disease might have reached its peak. But has it? Or is the decline in the number of new COVID cases due to some other reasons? It is a fact that there has been a steep drop in the number of PCR tests in recent months.
From as many as 20,000 PCR tests on a single day, the number has come down steadily, with only about 5,400 tests conducted on Monday. The number of tests conducted by Nepal is far less than those carried out by countries with a similar population or even less, such as Malaysia or Australia. In Australia, for example, with a population of about 25 million, more than 9 million tests have been carried out till date. Of those tests conducted, less than 1 per cent has shown positive, which means it takes hundreds, or even thousands of tests to find one case. Nepal, on the other has, conducted 1.8 million tests, and shows a test positivity rate of 15 per cent. Since, according to WHO, the epidemic is under control in a country only when the positive rate is less than 5 per cent, it is advisable for people to stay on their guard and continue following the health safety protocols recommended by the government, such as wearing a mask, washing hands frequently and practicing physical distancing.
There could be many reasons why there has been a drop in the number of tests carried out in the country. Even the Health Ministry admits that many infected people are not coming for the PCR tests, thinking they are not free, and even infected people are staying in isolation at home.
The government’s decision to charge for the coronavirus tests in early November and later scrap it has only created confusion in the people. Also the long queues seen in the government hospitals tend to discourage people from coming forward for a test. So unless one falls seriously ill or is planning to go abroad, no one wants to undergo a PCR test even if it is for free.
As of Monday, 249,244 infections have been recorded in the country, but there have been 236,573 recoveries, which means there are now 12,671 active cases. Compare this figure with October 23, when there were nearly three times the number of active cases. But the declining figures could be masking the real status of the disease in the country. Limited testing means many cases will be missed. Given the high positive rate – though it has decline by half in recent weeks – the number of confirmed cases is likely to represent only a small fraction of the true number of infections.
With countries around the world facing their second or even third wave of the pandemic, Nepal cannot rely too much on government statistics and instead be prepared for any eventuality. The focus should now be on importing the needed amount of vaccines in time so that people can start getting inoculated at about the time when other countries of the region start their vaccination programme.
Breeding crisis
Lack of potent male crocodiles at the Crocodile Breeding Centre at Kasara, Chitwan, has been cause for concern for officials there. It could lead to zero reproduction of hatchlings if suitable measures are not taken to increase their population. Chitwan’s Rapti and Narayani rivers are the major water bodies where fresh Gharial crocodiles are found. But their population is dwindling due to various factors, including human encroachment for farming and sand mining in their habitat.
The only 42-year-old male crocodile, according to officials, has ceased engaging in reproductive activities, due to which 300 eggs laid last April could not be hatched at the centre. The eggs collected from various water bodies are hatched at the centre. So far, the centre has released 1,600 hatchlings into various rivers.
The park officials need to hire a crocodile expert to examine what went wrong with the fish-eating male crocodile that could be reproductively active till it turns 60. Cross-breeding technique – bringing in other male crocodiles from another region having a similar condition – could be one option to resolve the problem. The Gharial has been listed as a critically endangered species in the IUCN Red List since 2007.
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