In his opening remarks during the 14th general convention of the Nepali Congress (NC), party chairman and prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba urged the 5,000 attendees that party members must move past their differences to focus the upcoming polls, reaffirming that the 2023 elections would go on as scheduled.
His address followed similar remarks by UML Chairman and former Prime Minister KP Oli during his UML’s 10th general convention two weeks ago, during which he directed UML cadres to mobilise in order for the party to form a majority in the upcoming elections.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center), the third-largest party in the parliament and NC’s coalition partner, is set to hold its own national conference in January.
Meanwhile, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) concluded their general conventions with a changing of the guard, after Rajendra Lingden was elected party chairman over former party leader Kamal Thapa.
Nepal’s political parties seem determined to capitalise on the wave of enthusiasm across the country inspired by conventions to encourage party cadres to mobilise for the upcoming elections as well as to get voters to the polls in 2023.
This follows an extended period of inactivity from all of Nepal’s major parties after the 2017 polls, which analysts say has decreased morale within party members and cadres.
While the NC had not organised any intra-party event after the election, all individual party activities for the UML and Maoist (Center) had come to a halt during their short-lived merger into the NCP. The Covid pandemic had also halted party activities at local levels.
However, with recent political developments from two parliament dissolutions, the NCP nullification, and the formation of an NC-led coalition government, the party conventions have been an effective tool for political leadership to reach out to the lower echelons of Nepal’s political parties. Moreover, the expansion of public access to Covid vaccines, have made parties confident to go ahead with all three elections.
Referring to the general convention as a ‘mini election’, UML’s Krishna Pokhrel says, “The parties have begun to streamline the organisation process for the election. This is a step in the right direction, and has sent the right message to the public.”
Now that the conventions for the country’s two biggest parties are over, says political analyst Puranjan Acharya, Nepal has officially entered its election phase. “These conventions were an opportunity for the parties to rebuild their election organisational structure,” Acharya adds.
At present, Nepal’s political circles have already begun to discuss possible party alliances. As it stands, Deuba’s NC presides over the coalition government comprised of Dahal’s MC, Madhav Kumar Nepal’s newly-minted UML (Unified Socialist), Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), and the Rastriya Janamorcha Party.
And while Dahal and Nepal have warned Deuba not to break their partnership until the election, seeking to capitalise on the grassroots influence of Nepal’s oldest political party, the alliance has already begun to weaken.
Nepal’s ruling alliance has been on thin ice even before they formed their partnership to oust former PM Oli in July, in large part due to differing views on the US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), which needs to be ratified by parliament. While Deuba’s NC supports the multi-million dollar project, his partners Dahal and Nepal are in vehement opposition, viewing the project as superseding Nepal’s Constitution.
NC leaders say that the party has no intentions of allying with its coalition partners in 2023, having ‘learned their lesson’ after their partnership with the MC and the RPP in 2017, during which candidates of the two parties ultimately swept the election at the expense of NC candidates.
Indeed, the NC seems wary of forming electoral alliances after their performance during the 2017 polls, during which more than 10 NC candidates were defeated by their UML opponents by a margin of 500 votes. Meanwhile, the votes for the proportional seats for the two parties also had a slim margin, with the UML surpassing NC by less than 50,000 votes.
“Nepali Congress has no plans to form an alliance with anyone,” says NC leader Gagan Thapa, “We are confident that we are going to sweep the polls with a majority by ourselves,” he said.
Maoist leader Som Prasad Pandey agrees. “Although we were hopeful that our alliance would see us through to the elections, the NC leader’s recent statements have indicated his disinclination towards the idea,” says Pandey.
With the UML-Maoist alliance null and void, the party sees the lack of a formidable leftist alliance as well as a significant increase in young supporters as primary reasons for the tide to turn in their favour in the polls in 2023.
“The enthusiasm shown by young people towards the NC convention is indicative of a surge of interest of young voters towards the party,” says NC leader Pokharel. “This is a sign of a favourable environment for the party going into the elections,”
But while the NC’s election strategy seems to be centred around winning a majority, insiders say that Dahal and Nepal’s main priority is to weaken Oli and the UML, for which Deuba‘s support will be crucial.
Meanwhile, UML (US) leader Pandey agrees that the main priority is to defeat the UML. “Even if the Nepali Congress does not follow through on our partnership, there will be electoral coordination between the Maoist Center and the Unified Socialists,” says Pandey. “Even if it is just these two parties, we can still defeat the UML in 64 constituencies, and win 20 seats for ourselves.”
However, UML central member Bishnu Rijal notes that it will be difficult for Dahal and Nepal to make any headway in the election without the NC’s support. “It might seem easy for MC and UML (US) to think that they will leave the UML in the dust during the upcoming elections,” says Rijal. “But in reality, the two parties do not have the confidence to stand on their own two feet without the Nepali Congress.”
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